THE BIG PICTURE
With the 2024-2025 school year behind us, Washington state finds itself at a crossroads: the state’s total population grew by more than 84,000 to over 8 million residents, yet many public school districts continue to realize student enrollment losses.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Population growth: Washington’s population rose to around 8.04 million as of April 2024, with net migration (people moving in minus out) accounting for over 80% of that increase.
- Slower pace: This year’s growth was about 20% below the previous decade’s average, marking a more moderate expansion.
DIGGING DEEPER: Why Are Schools Losing Students?
- Declining birth rates: Washington’s birth rate has been falling since 2017, resulting in fewer young children entering the public education pipeline, despite overall population growth.
- Housing trends: Nearly three-quarters of new housing development has concentrated in the state’s five largest metropolitan counties, led by King, Pierce, Snohomish, Spokane, and Clark.
- County trends: In the past ten years, only four of the state’s 39 counties experienced declining population, while the rest posted varied but mostly modest growth. Migration patterns show increased movement to urban and suburban areas, which create pockets of both rapid growth as well as decline for local districts.
- School-age population disconnect: Even as the population of children aged 5-17 has nudged up 0.3% in the past year, public K-12 enrollment dropped by 0.3%. Families opting for private, religious or home schooling have shifted the traditional link between population growth and public school enrollment.
WHY IT MATTERS
Decisions about budgeting, staffing, facility management, and program investments hinge on accurate enrollment projections.
Key factors affecting enrollment:
- Where, why, and how population changes occur (migration, birth rates, housing development)
- Shifts in preferences for private, home-based, or alternative education options
This complexity means individual districts can face very different futures—even within the same county.
What’s Next: Enrollment Forecasts
Demographers expect the downward trend in birth rates to continue, which may dampen future public school enrollment growth even if Washington keeps adding new residents. Urban counties may still see modest student gains, while more rural districts are likely to experience ongoing declines.
Districts leveraging advanced analytics platforms like K12enroll have achieved nearly 99% accuracy in statewide next-year enrollment forecasting, improving even further when using full-projected range models. This precision helps superintendents and other district leaders make informed decisions as the education landscape continues to evolve.
Bottom line: Washington is still growing—but the story for its schools depends on a complex mix of demographic and economic forces.