THE BIG PICTURE
Student numbers are dropping fast in key regions around the country (Los Angeles, Illinois, New York), but trends vary: some rural districts hold steady or grow while cities and coastlines contract sharply.
This situation is playing out similarly in Washington State, with three large districts, representing nearly 100,000 students, projected to shrink between 4%-6% within the next five years. Conversely, rural districts in the central and eastern areas of the state are projected to increase by 2% to 9% within the same time period. These volatile shifts in student enrollment are stressing historical district transportation models and finances.
- Shrinking enrollment places more stress on transportation finances than growing enrollment, forcing major route restructuring.
- Historical models of student transportation, impacted by shrinking enrollment, mean some buses run nearly empty during peak hours.
DIGGING DEEPER
Budget Squeeze — Fewer Riders, More Cost Per Head: Declining enrollment means less state funding, but bus and maintenance costs are fixed or increasing.
- Routes serving only a handful of students create significantly higher per-student costs for each route, each and every day.
- Fuel price volatility and decaying fleets are universal headaches across Washington, regardless of region ordistrict size.
- Some districts are responding with route cuts or “no bus zones”—leaving students within 1-2 miles of school to walk or bike.
Equity, Accessibility & Safety – Not Just Logistics: Route reductions and changing stop placements hit certain groups harder: English Learners, special needs, and lower-income students disproportionately lose access.
- Districts with high numbers of English Learners and students of color experience deeper declines, increasing equity challenges for route planning.
- Some districts implement age-specific rerouting to prevent overcrowding and discipline issues, but then risk longer rides for the youngest students.
- It is not uncommon for districts see higher rates of absenteeism among students with complicated transportation needs.
Declining Enrollment Requires Creative Solutions: With statewide enrollment projected to continue to decline into the foreseeable future, districts should proactively and creatively rethink student transportation.
- Invest in advanced routing software that retools assignments every semester to reflect enrollment, boosting efficiency and freeing up resources for the highest-need students
- Retool with flexible fleets (vans, ride-share partnerships) to maintain service for specific areas, or student populations. This also may have the benefit of reducing driver shortages as the requirements for van drivers are less complex than those for school bus drivers.
- Use real-time GPS tracking and parent apps to provide visibility, reducing safety concerns, increasing efficiency and generating parental trust. These apps are often bundled with advanced routing software packages.
- Offer partial subsidies or opt-in transportation for families, leveraging Title funds to cover costs when universal busing isn’t feasible or too costly.
- Partner with local transit agencies, offering discounted or no-cost public transportation passes for students in areas with low bus ridership or budget gaps. This has been an urban model for many years and is now becoming more commonplace even in suburban or rural districts across the state.
- Consider “hub stops,” where students converge at central points to minimize individual bus runs for smallerpopulations.
Bottom Line: In order to maintain equity, safety and financial viability for pupil transportation, districts experiencing declining enrollment may want to consider creative adjustments to historical models. A mix of utilizing advanced software, right-sizing vehicles, partnerships, and rethinking routing and stops can maintain, or even improve, district transportation outcomes.