THE BIG PICTURE
As we’re all too aware, birthrates have been declining across the US for many years. BUT, there are some interesting anomalies we should be aware of when planning for future declines in student enrollment.
Fertility rates dropped, as predicted, during 2020 and 2021, but deeper research into these two years has identified that the primary portion of the overall drop was due to a reduction in births to foreign-born mothers, which was driven by pandemic-related travel restrictions. For those two years, birth rates actually INCREASED among US-born mothers. This “baby bump” was also not insignificant.
DIGGING DEEPER
This reversal of birth rates among US-born mothers was over 5% higher than pre-pandemic rates. In addition, this increase persisted into early 2023. A broad range of women were having more babies, including first births to younger women as well as births to women in their thirties with college educations. The increase was not uniform, though, as Black women did not experience the same increase, regardless of age or education.
As babies born between 2020 and 2023 are nearing, or at, school entry age, districts may want to consider slightly increasing their enrollment projections when undertaking staffing, budgeting and school assignment planning this winter and spring.
If you’re using K12enroll, then you’re already set – as your projections include a higher, lower and best projection, so you can confidently plan between the best and higher and know you should be 98%-99% accurate.
ENROLLMENT PROJECTION ACCURACY
Speaking of accuracy – this is the time of the year when the “rubber hits the road” for us at K12enroll. It’s when we find out how accurate our previous year enrollment projections were for both individual districts as well as regions and states.
Last year, across all districts, K12enroll was over 98.5% accurate statewide in Washington. This was true even including a few outliers (we’re talking to you small districts that open statewide virtual schools!). Most districts realized 99%-100% accurate projections.
We’re always looking to refine our projections and will be sharing some key changes we’ve made this year to improve your accuracy even further. If you’re not yet using K12enroll, drop us a note or give us a ring and we’ll be happy to get you access to your district’s incredibly accurate enrollment projections.